War on Iran

I do not believe that there is going to be a war on Iran this year, or next, or ever. I could detail lots of geo-political, socio-economic reasons that such a war is unlikely, but the truth is that the reason i think such a war will not not happen is the faith i have that no nation embarks on a course of action that will lead to it's devastation.

Imagine the year after the first military strike against Iran. Will the Israeli people still populate that sliver of land between Jordan and the Med? Or will there be more Israelis living in Europe and America? Try and imagine the sight, the sound, and the smell of the world that will exist a year after the first strike against Iran. What will be the state of global civil liberty? What would the global economic picture be? What would the Chinese do when the Gulf oil pumps stop running? Do they, the Chinese, think that the US and Europe will refrain from taking advantage of the resulting social upheaval in China? Will the Chinese make a desperate bid for the South China Sea oil and gas fields? How will the US and its new Asian allies react to that?

I picture a world beyond the first year of a military strike against Iran as a world reeking of the stench of oily black smoke, burnt flesh, and hot words. A world of open wounds, torn flesh, broken promises, shattered illusions, and hunger. I see the Earth with deep scratch marks ripped across its surface seeping blood into black space. I see tanks running protesters under wheel, black hooded thugs clubbing heads, plastic smiling faces on the tv news telling us to be calm, and happy while we plot a midnight home invasion into our neighbours'.

There will not be a war on Iran. Because this is not when it all ends.